Read the following passage and answer the item that follows. Your answer to this item should be based on the passage only.

Cyclone warnings on India's east coast are now issued with far more lead time than they were two decades ago, and the forecasts themselves have become markedly more accurate. Yet evacuation is still uneven. Studies of small fishing settlements find that whether a household moves depends less on the accuracy of the warning than on how the household reads it. A warning that has been issued before without a severe landfall following is discounted the next time. A household that has lost a season's earnings by moving early weighs that against the risk. Improving the forecast further does not by itself change any of this. What determines the response is the way the risk is understood by the people being warned.

Which one of the following statements best reflects the most logical and rational message conveyed by the author of the passage?